Water FractalTier 2
at MVG HVN Regional 4/6
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 8.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 67.4% | +13.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Wind Diana | 4.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.2% | +2.4 |
| Wind Exia | 4.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.1% | -5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 37.2% | -7.4 |
| Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.6% | +2.9 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.1% | -8.5 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freeze Stiff | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |